Labour's future success is less clear-cut after the local elections

3 May 2024, 17:23 | Updated: 3 May 2024, 19:22

We went into this set of local and mayoral elections with two big questions: Is Labour on course for a majority and how bad is it going to be for Rishi Sunak? 

On the Sunak question, it's a very clear-cut story.

The Tories are having as bad a night as their worst nightmare.

There is a 19-point drop in the Conservative vote compared with the 2019 general election - one of its worst performances ever.

But it's not an all-out win for Labour, either.

As it stands on these results, the party is not on course for an outright majority at the general election, according to our election expert Professor Michael Thrasher.

The projected National Equivalent Vote (NEV) share - the model we use to translate local council elections into a nationwide vote share - puts Labour on 35%, short of the 40%-plus territory some see as needed to catapult Sir Keir Starmer into No 10 and way off what Blair was hitting in the 1995 and 1996 local elections ahead of his massive landslide.

If you want to benchmark against how it compares to Blair's performance in the run-up to 1997, in the 1995 local elections, Labour achieved an NEV of 47%, while in 1996 the party hit a NEV of 43%.

So what might that mean for the maths in the House of Commons?

The Tory majority is wiped out - with Sunak projected to win a 25% vote share - and Labour becomes the largest party in parliament, but 32 seats short of an outright majority.

That would give them a gain of 93 seats to 294, with the Tories dropping 130 seats to finish with 242.

The Lib Dems would add 30 seats to have 38 MPs, with others up seven on 66.

That raises questions for Labour.

While the country is clear in these results that the government is the problem, they seem less sold on whether Keir Starmer is the answer.