Ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah met with celebrations on streets of Beirut - but will it last?

27 November 2024, 09:21 | Updated: 27 November 2024, 10:42

For the first time in more than a year, there is a peace of sorts on the Israel-Lebanon border, but there are still huge questions about whether it can hold and what it means more broadly for the region.

The ceasefire is in its infancy as it came into effect at 4am local time.

On the streets of Beirut, there was celebratory gunfire as the deal was welcomed - and there is reason for optimism that it will succeed.

Over the last few months, Lebanon's militant group Hezbollah has been severely degraded.

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Much of its arsenal has been destroyed and its leadership, including Hassan Nasrallah, eliminated.

Hezbollah had miscalculated it would be able to fight a limited war against Israel in solidarity with Hamas, the militant group ruling Gaza, without suffering major consequences.

For Hezbollah, the ceasefire is now a chance to lick its wounds and live another day - to carry on fighting would potentially put its survival in jeopardy.

And Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has made clear the ceasefire allows his nation's exhausted forces to recover and rearm, with the country also now able to focus on the threat from Iran.

But how the ceasefire is implemented still remains a vexatious issue.

Many Israelis from the evacuated northern communities feel they have seen this all before.

When the 2006 war ended Hezbollah, which like Hamas is backed by Iran, simply lodged itself back on the border and became more powerful.

This time there are differences - whilst the framework of UN resolution 1701 remains there will also be an international monitoring committee to check for violations.

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Israel has also made clear it will respond with formidable military aggression if there are breaches of the agreement.

The hope is the peace in the north will eventually usher in a broader agreement as the fighting in Gaza is not part of the ceasefire, meaning for the moment the grim cycle of violence in the besieged enclave continues.