Assad fall 'not surprising' as Russia and Iran decided to throw 'Syria under the bus'
8 December 2024, 08:47 | Updated: 8 December 2024, 10:35
The Syrian government has collapsed, falling to a rebel offensive that seized control of the capital Damascus and sent crowds into the streets to celebrate. What unfolded was "not that surprising", according to Sky's defence analyst Professor Michael Clarke.
From a military point of view it is what tends to happen, he said, citing similar scenarios in the Libyan civil war in 2011, and in Iraq in 2014 - when Islamic State fighters "were at the gates of Baghdad within weeks".
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"We are not dealing with densely populated areas here, so when one city falls or surrenders, the defenders fall back to the next city, so big areas get covered when there is an advance," he said.
"In this case, I have been struck by the fact that over the last day very little fighting has taken place.
"The Russians launched ferocious air attacks until a couple of days ago which didn't stem the advance, and actually the Syrian army didn't fight at all.
"Officers were leaving their units - and if the officer leaves, the unit just collapses. Why should people fight if the officers clear off?
"When that happens the army is in a complete state of collapse."
Prof Clarke said Assad's dramatic downfall was also brought about so swiftly by the latest rebel offensive because he was fighting a battle on three fronts.
He had Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) coming at him from the north, he had the Southern Front coming at him from the south, and a Kurdish group in the east.
"So he was under pressure from three fronts, three different groups, and the Syrian army decided it wasn't going to fight, and the groups as they moved forward were able to do deals," said Prof Clarke.
Russia and Iran abandoned Assad
He said the advance was also possible now because the Russians and Iranians were both engaged in "very low-cost operations".
"The Russians were providing air power, but not many boots on the ground in Syria, apart from the Wagner group, who were effectively expelled with the Prigozhin coup in Russia in 2023," he said.
"The Iranians work through the Republican Guard - which are the Quds Force, the militias, they are quite well-trained, but there are only small groups of them - so neither Russia nor Iran really committed much to Syria."
While "backing up a ruthless dictatorship" was "quite cheap" when all that was needed were "thugs on the ground", things had become a lot more complicated.
"When that regime comes under any sort of sustained pressure - and this was pressure on three sides in three different places - suddenly, that limited commitment that Russia and Iran were making wasn't enough," said Prof Clarke.
"Either they were going to commit much more, or they were going to have to pull out.
"Both of them decided they would throw Syria under the bus and pull out."
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What next for Syria?
Prof Clarke said there is a slim chance of a multi-party government in Syria, because "all Middle Eastern countries seem to require relatively autocratic governments".
"It would be nice to think there would be some kind of multi-party group that might form," he said.
"The prime minister, Jalali, has said, 'I will carry on, and I will work with anybody', and HTS has said 'we will form some sort of national front'. But we'll see."
He added: "The brutal truth is, if you look across the Middle East, all Middle Eastern countries seem to require relatively autocratic governments.
"Israel always says, 'we are the only democracy in the Middle East', and there is some truth to that, even though democracy in Israel has been under enormous strain in the last few years.
"But if you look in the Gulf, what you have got are kingdoms, ruling with a sort of benevolent dictatorship - but they have got lots of money, they have got cash, so they can buy off a lot of protest.
"In the Levant itself - in Syria, in Lebanon, in Egypt, Iraq - you've got very strong either one-man or one-party governments.
"The nearest we have had to a multi-party government in an Arab state was in Tunisia after the Arab Spring - and that collapsed."
(c) Sky News 2024: Assad fall 'not surprising' as Russia and Iran decided to throw 'Syria under the bus'
